Distributed Electricity Definition
Distributed electricity is the annual electricity distributed to customers within a harmonized modeling region, reported in gigawatt-hours (GWh). Historical values cover 2011–2024. Production forecasts for 2025–2030 use the regional Drift model.
Local Generation Definition
Local generation is the annual electricity generated within the same harmonized region, reported in GWh. It does not represent total electricity available to the region because interregional imports, exports, and power-system flows are outside the model target. Production forecasts use Drift V1.
Production Forecast Formula
slope = (y_T − y_1) / (t_T − t_1)
ŷ_(T+h) = y_T + h × slope
Drift estimates the average annual change implied by the first and latest usable observations in each regional series, then extends that change into the forecast horizon. The calculation is applied separately to every harmonized region and separately to distributed electricity and local generation.
Active Model Variables
- Distributed electricity target
- Annual distributed electricity (GWh)
- Local generation target
- Annual local generation (GWh)
- Time index
- t = annual observation year
- Exogenous predictors (X)
- None in production
- Model class
- Univariate annual time-series models
Population, GRDP, inflation, technology mix, and other enriched variables were assessed in challenger experiments. They are not inputs to the active production forecasts.
Production Forecasting Approach
- Historical period
- 2011–2024
- Forecast horizon
- 2025–2030
- Modeling geography
- 34 harmonized regions
- Frequency
- Annual
- Distributed electricity model
- Drift
- Local generation model
- Drift V1
- Regional uncertainty intervals
- Not published
Validation Design
- Target years
- 2019–2024
- Forecast horizon
- 1 year
- Purpose
- Near-term stability
- Origins
- 2018–2021
- Maximum horizon
- 3 years
- Purpose
- Forecast-path robustness
Supported evaluation measures are macro sMAPE, macro MASE, micro RMSE, aggregate bias, and challenger win rate against the Drift benchmark.
Accounting Difference Formula
Positive and negative values are spatial accounting differences. They do not represent operational surplus, shortage, reserve margin, or blackout probability.
Accounting Difference Categories
- Far Above Distributed Electricity
- ≥ +20%
- Above Distributed Electricity
- ≥ +5% and < +20%
- Relatively Balanced
- > −5% and < +5%
- Below Distributed Electricity
- > −20% and ≤ −5%
- Far Below Distributed Electricity
- ≤ −20%
- Unavailable
- Incomplete pair
These boundaries follow the production classification exactly. Values equal to +5% are classified as Above, while values equal to −5% are classified as Below.
Harmonized Geography
The dashboard uses 34 harmonized modeling regions. Papua Selatan, Papua Tengah, and Papua Pegunungan are represented within Papua, while Papua Barat Daya is represented within Papua Barat. Earlier Kalimantan Timur and Kalimantan Utara observations follow the audited geography-break treatment. Values are not duplicated across split provinces.
Historical Data Treatment
- • The 2016 historical distributed-electricity and local-generation pairs include audited interpolation for continuity. They are explicitly identified as interpolated and are not treated as observed values.
- • Nine historical pairs remain incomplete: DI Yogyakarta in 2011–2014 and 2020, plus Kalimantan Timur and Kalimantan Utara in 2011–2012.
- • Missing historical values are preserved and are never converted to zero.
- • Forecast years 2025–2030 contain 204 complete region-year pairs.
Interpretation Caveat
Important: The regional accounting difference is a spatial accounting proxy. Electricity may flow across interconnected regions; therefore, local generation below distributed electricity does not imply shortage or blackout risk, while local generation above distributed electricity does not imply freely available operational capacity. System-level utility planning data are required for adequacy, reliability, reserve margin, and investment decisions.